The public SBA loan record shows 354 plumbing/HVAC contractors in the Phoenix, AZ metro that took a 7(a) or 504 loan since 1991, financed with $176.8M of SBA-backed capital. 297 have no distress on record (no charge-off, liquidation, or delinquency). Of those, 82 (28%) took their first SBA loan 15+ years ago, which puts their owners plausibly at or past retirement age. Our v0 scorer flags 24 (7%) as sell-readiness prospects, meaning long owner tenure plus SBA debt retired or nearly retired, with no franchise resale channel. None of these businesses are listed for sale anywhere. That is the succession gap.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| SBA-financed businesses in segment (FY1991-present) | 354 |
| … with no distress on record | 297 |
| … with distress on record (excluded from targets) | 57 |
| Total SBA capital into segment | $176.8M |
| Median years since first SBA loan (survivors) | 9.6 |
| Succession-age businesses (15+ yrs) | 82 (28%) |
| Sell-readiness prospects (score ≥ 90) | 24 (7%) |
| First SBA loan | Businesses |
|---|---|
| 1995-1999 | 2 |
| 2000-2004 | 15 |
| 2005-2009 | 56 |
| 2010-2014 | 54 |
| 2015-2019 | 67 |
| 2020-2024 | 71 |
| 2025-2029 | 32 |
Real businesses from the record, ranked by sell-readiness score. Names, addresses, and lender details are withheld in this public sample. The full identified list is delivered in a concierge engagement.
| # | Profile | Score | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Plumbing/HVAC contractor, founded ~2008, ~5 jobs (lender-reported), Mesa, AZ | 100 | SBA debt fully repaid (2014)18 yrs since first SBA loanindependent (non-franchise)$1,165,000 SBA-financed |
| 2 | Plumbing/HVAC contractor, founded ~2008, ~8 jobs (lender-reported), Phoenix, AZ | 100 | SBA debt fully repaid (2021)18 yrs since first SBA loanindependent (non-franchise)2 SBA loans, $875,000 total |
| 3 | Plumbing/HVAC contractor, founded ~2008, ~5 jobs (lender-reported), Phoenix, AZ | 100 | SBA debt fully repaid (2018)18 yrs since first SBA loanindependent (non-franchise)$698,000 SBA-financed |
| 4 | Plumbing/HVAC contractor, founded ~2008, ~13 jobs (lender-reported), Phoenix, AZ | 100 | SBA debt fully repaid (2024)18 yrs since first SBA loanindependent (non-franchise)2 SBA loans, $560,000 total |
| 5 | Plumbing/HVAC contractor, founded ~2008, ~6 jobs (lender-reported), Wickenburg, AZ | 100 | SBA debt fully repaid (2017)18 yrs since first SBA loanindependent (non-franchise)3 SBA loans, $100,000 total |
| 6 | Plumbing/HVAC contractor, founded ~2011, ~6 jobs (lender-reported), Queen Creek, AZ | 100 | SBA debt fully repaid (2017)15 yrs since first SBA loanindependent (non-franchise)2 SBA loans, $55,600 total |
| 7 | Plumbing/HVAC contractor, founded ~2011, ~2 jobs (lender-reported), Peoria, AZ | 96 | SBA debt fully repaid (2021)14 yrs since first SBA loanindependent (non-franchise)2 SBA loans, $200,000 total |
| 8 | Plumbing/HVAC contractor, founded ~2012, ~11 jobs (lender-reported), Phoenix, AZ | 96 | SBA debt fully repaid (2014)14 yrs since first SBA loanindependent (non-franchise)$100,000 SBA-financed |
| 9 | Plumbing/HVAC contractor, founded ~2012, ~11 jobs (lender-reported), Chandler, AZ | 95 | SBA debt fully repaid (2023)14 yrs since first SBA loanindependent (non-franchise)$808,900 SBA-financed |
| 10 | Plumbing/HVAC contractor, founded ~1996, ~7 jobs (lender-reported), Tempe, AZ | 95 | SBA debt fully repaid (2021)30 yrs since first SBA loanindependent (non-franchise)3 SBA loans, $944,000 total |
| 11 | Plumbing/HVAC contractor, founded ~2004, ~15 jobs (lender-reported), Phoenix, AZ | 95 | SBA debt fully repaid (2006)22 yrs since first SBA loanindependent (non-franchise)$700,000 SBA-financed |
| 12 | Plumbing/HVAC contractor, founded ~2005, ~7 jobs (lender-reported), Glendale, AZ | 95 | SBA debt fully repaid (2017)21 yrs since first SBA loanindependent (non-franchise)$669,000 SBA-financed |
| 13 | Plumbing/HVAC contractor, founded ~2009, ~16 jobs (lender-reported), Avondale, AZ | 95 | SBA debt fully repaid (2018)17 yrs since first SBA loanindependent (non-franchise)$128,000 SBA-financed |
| 14 | Plumbing/HVAC contractor, founded ~2003, ~5 jobs (lender-reported), Apache Junction, AZ | 95 | SBA debt fully repaid (2006)23 yrs since first SBA loanindependent (non-franchise)$126,500 SBA-financed |
| 15 | Plumbing/HVAC contractor, founded ~2005, ~5 jobs (lender-reported), Phoenix, AZ | 94 | SBA debt fully repaid (2007)21 yrs since first SBA loanindependent (non-franchise)$324,000 SBA-financed |
| 16 | Plumbing/HVAC contractor, founded ~2010, ~33 jobs (lender-reported), Mesa, AZ | 94 | SBA debt fully repaid (2016)16 yrs since first SBA loanindependent (non-franchise)$630,000 SBA-financed |
| 17 | Plumbing/HVAC contractor, founded ~2003, ~4 jobs (lender-reported), Mesa, AZ | 93 | SBA debt fully repaid (2005)23 yrs since first SBA loanindependent (non-franchise)$281,200 SBA-financed |
| 18 | Plumbing/HVAC contractor, founded ~2004, ~2 jobs (lender-reported), Glendale, AZ | 93 | SBA debt fully repaid (2006)22 yrs since first SBA loanindependent (non-franchise)$265,000 SBA-financed |
| 19 | Plumbing/HVAC contractor, founded ~2011, ~14 jobs (lender-reported), Tempe, AZ | 93 | SBA debt fully repaid (2022)15 yrs since first SBA loanindependent (non-franchise)$405,000 SBA-financed |
| 20 | Plumbing/HVAC contractor, founded ~2013, ~6 jobs (lender-reported), Phoenix, AZ | 92 | SBA debt fully repaid (2018)13 yrs since first SBA loanindependent (non-franchise)2 SBA loans, $445,300 total |
Source. SBA 7(a)/504 FOIA loan-level dataset (data.sba.gov), files as of 2026-03-31: the complete public loan-level record of both SBA flagship programs, FY1991-present. Every number in this report is computed directly from that record. Nothing is scraped, purchased, or modeled from third-party data.
Entity resolution (estimated). The FOIA record has no business ID. Loans are rolled up to a business by normalized borrower name + state + ZIP. Name changes, relocations, and multi-entity owners will split or merge some businesses.
Sell-readiness score (heuristic, 0-100). A weighted blend of signals computable from the loan record. It estimates likelihood the owner is approaching an exit. It does not read minds.
| Signal | Weight | Rationale | Failure mode |
|---|---|---|---|
| Owner tenure | 35 | Years since first SBA loan. Owners are typically 35-50 at first loan, so 15-30 years on, the owner is plausibly 55-75 and nearing retirement. | Business may have been sold already, or the loan-taker wasn't the founder. |
| Debt runway | 25 | Scheduled final maturity recently passed or within ~2 years. A debt-free business is cleaner to sell, and owners often wait out their note. | Term is scheduled; refis and prepayments are invisible except via the paid-in-full date. |
| Loan outcome | 15 | All loans paid in full means the business survived and deleveraged. Distressed loans are a hard exclusion. | Paid in full can also mean early payoff and aggressive growth. |
| Size band | 5 | Lender-reported jobs supported of 5-50 is the classic searcher/SMB-buyer band. | Jobs supported is created + retained as reported at approval. An estimate, often stale. |
| Independence | 10 | Non-franchise businesses have no franchisor resale channel. The succession gap is theirs. | Some independents have strong broker relationships anyway. |
| Quiet period | 10 | No new SBA borrowing in 7+ years suggests no expansion reinvestment. | Or they graduated to conventional bank credit. Noisiest signal, lowest weight. |
Businesses with any distressed loan (charge-off, liquidation, delinquency, deferment), or first financed less than 4 years ago, are excluded from prospect counts. Prospect = surviving business scoring ≥ 90. Succession-age = first SBA loan 15+ years ago.
Provenance. Verified (public record): loan dates, amounts, status, NAICS, franchise flag, geography, lender. Estimated (derived): founding year (= first SBA loan), scheduled maturity, entity rollup, jobs supported, and the score itself.
This build covers 2,174,502 loans, FY1991-FY2026, across 7(a) and 504, representing $742.8B in gross approvals. The record rolls up to 1,643,950 distinct businesses, of which 133,874 (8.1% of businesses, 6.2% of loans) qualify as sell-readiness prospects under the v0 definition, holding $77.2B of SBA-financed capital. These are the same figures quoted on mainferret.com, recomputed on every build.