The public SBA loan record shows 273 child care providers in the Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN metro that took a 7(a) or 504 loan since 1991, financed with $217.6M of SBA-backed capital. 261 have no distress on record (no charge-off, liquidation, or delinquency). Of those, 105 (40%) took their first SBA loan 15+ years ago, which puts their owners plausibly at or past retirement age. Our v0 scorer flags 40 (15%) as sell-readiness prospects, meaning long owner tenure plus SBA debt retired or nearly retired, with no franchise resale channel. None of these businesses are listed for sale anywhere. That is the succession gap.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| SBA-financed businesses in segment (FY1991-present) | 273 |
| … with no distress on record | 261 |
| … with distress on record (excluded from targets) | 12 |
| Total SBA capital into segment | $217.6M |
| Median years since first SBA loan (survivors) | 12.7 |
| Succession-age businesses (15+ yrs) | 105 (40%) |
| Sell-readiness prospects (score ≥ 90) | 40 (15%) |
| First SBA loan | Businesses |
|---|---|
| 1990-1994 | 8 |
| 1995-1999 | 20 |
| 2000-2004 | 13 |
| 2005-2009 | 51 |
| 2010-2014 | 46 |
| 2015-2019 | 63 |
| 2020-2024 | 42 |
| 2025-2029 | 18 |
Real businesses from the record, ranked by sell-readiness score. Names, addresses, and lender details are withheld in this public sample. The full identified list is delivered in a concierge engagement.
| # | Profile | Score | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Child care provider, founded ~2006, ~44 jobs (lender-reported), Woodbury, MN | 100 | SBA debt fully repaid (2014)20 yrs since first SBA loanindependent (non-franchise)2 SBA loans, $1,191,000 total |
| 2 | Child care provider, founded ~2007, ~30 jobs (lender-reported), Little Canada, MN | 100 | SBA debt fully repaid (2016)18 yrs since first SBA loanindependent (non-franchise)$672,000 SBA-financed |
| 3 | Child care provider, founded ~2003, ~18 jobs (lender-reported), Anoka, MN | 100 | SBA debt fully repaid (2024)22 yrs since first SBA loanindependent (non-franchise)$650,000 SBA-financed |
| 4 | Child care provider, founded ~2005, ~20 jobs (lender-reported), Burnsville, MN | 100 | SBA debt fully repaid (2017)21 yrs since first SBA loanindependent (non-franchise)$638,000 SBA-financed |
| 5 | Child care provider, founded ~2007, ~16 jobs (lender-reported), White Bear Lake, MN | 100 | SBA debt fully repaid (2025)18 yrs since first SBA loanindependent (non-franchise)$638,000 SBA-financed |
| 6 | Child care provider, founded ~2006, ~11 jobs (lender-reported), Hugo, MN | 100 | SBA debt fully repaid (2013)20 yrs since first SBA loanindependent (non-franchise)$544,000 SBA-financed |
| 7 | Child care provider, founded ~2006, ~37 jobs (lender-reported), Burnsville, MN | 100 | SBA debt fully repaid (2021)20 yrs since first SBA loanindependent (non-franchise)$460,000 SBA-financed |
| 8 | Child care provider, founded ~2006, ~14 jobs (lender-reported), Shakopee, MN | 100 | SBA debt fully repaid (2023)20 yrs since first SBA loanindependent (non-franchise)$385,000 SBA-financed |
| 9 | Child care provider, founded ~2001, ~26 jobs (lender-reported), Corcoran, MN | 100 | SBA debt fully repaid (2005)25 yrs since first SBA loanindependent (non-franchise)$379,000 SBA-financed |
| 10 | Child care provider, founded ~2002, ~5 jobs (lender-reported), North St. Paul, MN | 100 | SBA debt fully repaid (2007)24 yrs since first SBA loanindependent (non-franchise)$365,700 SBA-financed |
| 11 | Child care provider, founded ~2002, ~13 jobs (lender-reported), St Francis, MN | 100 | SBA debt fully repaid (2017)24 yrs since first SBA loanindependent (non-franchise)$286,000 SBA-financed |
| 12 | Child care provider, founded ~2010, ~20 jobs (lender-reported), Chaska, MN | 100 | SBA debt fully repaid (2016)16 yrs since first SBA loanindependent (non-franchise)2 SBA loans, $284,100 total |
| 13 | Child care provider, founded ~2002, ~10 jobs (lender-reported), Maple Grove, MN | 100 | SBA debt fully repaid (2010)24 yrs since first SBA loanindependent (non-franchise)$267,000 SBA-financed |
| 14 | Child care provider, founded ~2004, ~7 jobs (lender-reported), St. Paul, MN | 100 | SBA debt fully repaid (2008)21 yrs since first SBA loanindependent (non-franchise)$260,000 SBA-financed |
| 15 | Child care provider, founded ~2005, ~16 jobs (lender-reported), Rosemount, MN | 100 | SBA debt fully repaid (2018)21 yrs since first SBA loanindependent (non-franchise)$205,000 SBA-financed |
| 16 | Child care provider, founded ~1999, size n/a, Rosemount, MN | 98 | SBA debt fully repaid (2005)27 yrs since first SBA loanindependent (non-franchise)$230,000 SBA-financed |
| 17 | Child care provider, founded ~2003, ~55 jobs (lender-reported), Woodbury, MN | 97 | SBA debt fully repaid (2018)23 yrs since first SBA loanindependent (non-franchise)3 SBA loans, $1,898,000 total |
| 18 | Child care provider, founded ~2001, ~62 jobs (lender-reported), Vadnais Heights, MN | 97 | SBA debt fully repaid (2016)24 yrs since first SBA loanindependent (non-franchise)3 SBA loans, $1,467,000 total |
| 19 | Child care provider, founded ~2012, ~35 jobs (lender-reported), Chanhassen, MN | 97 | SBA debt fully repaid (2016)14 yrs since first SBA loanindependent (non-franchise)$118,400 SBA-financed |
| 20 | Child care provider, founded ~2008, ~25 jobs (lender-reported), Brooklyn Park, MN | 95 | SBA debt fully repaid (2016)17 yrs since first SBA loanindependent (non-franchise)$1,273,000 SBA-financed |
Source. SBA 7(a)/504 FOIA loan-level dataset (data.sba.gov), files as of 2026-03-31: the complete public loan-level record of both SBA flagship programs, FY1991-present. Every number in this report is computed directly from that record. Nothing is scraped, purchased, or modeled from third-party data.
Entity resolution (estimated). The FOIA record has no business ID. Loans are rolled up to a business by normalized borrower name + state + ZIP. Name changes, relocations, and multi-entity owners will split or merge some businesses.
Sell-readiness score (heuristic, 0-100). A weighted blend of signals computable from the loan record. It estimates likelihood the owner is approaching an exit. It does not read minds.
| Signal | Weight | Rationale | Failure mode |
|---|---|---|---|
| Owner tenure | 35 | Years since first SBA loan. Owners are typically 35-50 at first loan, so 15-30 years on, the owner is plausibly 55-75 and nearing retirement. | Business may have been sold already, or the loan-taker wasn't the founder. |
| Debt runway | 25 | Scheduled final maturity recently passed or within ~2 years. A debt-free business is cleaner to sell, and owners often wait out their note. | Term is scheduled; refis and prepayments are invisible except via the paid-in-full date. |
| Loan outcome | 15 | All loans paid in full means the business survived and deleveraged. Distressed loans are a hard exclusion. | Paid in full can also mean early payoff and aggressive growth. |
| Size band | 5 | Lender-reported jobs supported of 5-50 is the classic searcher/SMB-buyer band. | Jobs supported is created + retained as reported at approval. An estimate, often stale. |
| Independence | 10 | Non-franchise businesses have no franchisor resale channel. The succession gap is theirs. | Some independents have strong broker relationships anyway. |
| Quiet period | 10 | No new SBA borrowing in 7+ years suggests no expansion reinvestment. | Or they graduated to conventional bank credit. Noisiest signal, lowest weight. |
Businesses with any distressed loan (charge-off, liquidation, delinquency, deferment), or first financed less than 4 years ago, are excluded from prospect counts. Prospect = surviving business scoring ≥ 90. Succession-age = first SBA loan 15+ years ago.
Provenance. Verified (public record): loan dates, amounts, status, NAICS, franchise flag, geography, lender. Estimated (derived): founding year (= first SBA loan), scheduled maturity, entity rollup, jobs supported, and the score itself.